Sig-Gis

Natural Hazards

Natural Hazard and Risk Analytics

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Assessment and Spatial Analysis

• Wildfire, earthquake, tsunami, floods
• Parcel- to landscape-level assessments
• Event likelihoods and patterns
• Socio-economic impacts
• Ecosystem services impacts
• Pre-, during, and post-event modeling

Due to SIG’s core strength in spatial environmental modeling, many of our products are in the form of mapped data. Our approach to analyzing natural hazards incorporates three basic components needed to produce maps of expected impacts:

• Magnitude of natural hazard events
• Exposure of assets to natural hazard events
• Frequency of natural hazard events

By linking spatially explicit models, a more comprehensive analysis of natural hazards and their impacts is possible. For example, a large magnitude natural hazard event may be much less of a concern in a location where few assets are exposed; conversely, concern may be much greater for quite minor natural hazard occurrences, if asset exposure is moderate and probability of events is high. Maps of expected impacts and the factors that drive them are essential for mitigating natural hazards in the most cost effective way.

EXAMPLE PROJECTS

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Carbon vulnerability analysis: We help clients that are interested in monitoring forest conditions, participating in carbon exchange programs, and determining optimal management strategies in the face of varying fire hazards. We also evaluate different scenarios of forest management for assessing tradeoffs between competing risks/goals. This includes mapping and monitoring forests, estimating forest biomass using both remote sensing and field methods, and modeling the growth and disturbance regime (fire, drought, beetle kill) of forests under different scenarios. In the process, the team at SIG can help clients determine which forest projects are likely to reduce losses to natural hazards and yield high-quality and legitimate carbon offsets.

Risk rating for structures or communities: We can assist clients that need to quantify the risk of losses, whether at the level of individual parcels or for entire urbanized regions. SIG research scientists and collaborators have extensive expertise in modeling spatially explicit natural hazard events, their expected impacts, and related scenario analysis. This type of evaluation is crucial for targeting mitigation activities (e.g., for community wildfire protection planning) and/or quantifying portfolio exposure to potential large-scale losses (e.g., insurance and reinsurance companies).

AND MANY MORE (Call for details...)

Latest News

Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing: Steen Magnussen, Stephen W. Taylor

Spatial and temporal variation in seven fire regime variables are described for Canada’s managed forests. Opportunities for sharing forest fire suppression resources are explored with simulations of fire regimes and quantifying the degree of temporal and spatial synchrony in peak fire-activities.
Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States: Marc-André Parisien, Susan Snetsinger, Jonathan A. Greenberg, Cara R. Nelson, Tania Schoennagel, Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Max A. Moritz

We mapped wildfire probability in the western United States using statistical models relating fire during a 25-year period to environmental variables representing ignitions, fuels, climate and topography. Results reveal highly heterogeneous patterns of wildfire probability and also enhance understanding of controls on wildfire activity in the western USA.
IJWF Outstanding Associate Editor Award 2011: Douglas J. McRae: - Volume 21(1)

We mapped wildfire probability in the western United States using statistical models relating fire during a 25-year period to environmental variables representing ignitions, fuels, climate and topography. Results reveal highly heterogeneous patterns of wildfire probability and also enhance understanding of controls on wildfire activity in the western USA.
Wind–terrain effects on the propagation of wildfires in rugged terrain: fire channelling: Jason J. Sharples, Richard H. D. McRae, Stephen R. Wilkes

This paper considers an atypical form of fire propagation, characterised by rapid lateral spread, and associated spot-fire development, across steep, lee-facing slopes. The role of wind, terrain and fire interaction in driving the phenomenon is investigated using weather, elevation and multispectral fire data and a likely explanation for the atypical spread is hypothesised.
The influence of prescribed fire on the extent of wildfire in savanna landscapes of western Arnhem Land, Australia: Owen F. Price, Jeremy Russell-Smith, Felicity Watt

Fire history mapping for 1990–2009 is used to quantify the mitigation of late dry-season wildfire (LDS) through prescribed burning in Western Arnhem Land. Prescribed burning can substantially reduce LDS area, by direct one-to-one replacement. A management program operating since 2005 has successfully reduced LDS using prescribed fire.
Assessment of post-fire changes in land surface temperature and surface albedo, and their relation with fire–burn severity using multitemporal MODIS imagery: Sander Veraverbeke, Willem W. Verstraeten, Stefaan Lhermitte, Ruben Van De Kerchove, Rudi Goossens

This paper assesses post-fire changes in land surface temperature (LST) and surface albedo (α) using remotely sensed time series Lag, i.e. time since fire, and seasonal timing affected the magnitude of post-fire changes. Moreover, the seasonality constrains the suitability of the LST and α layers as indicators of fire severity and burn severity.
Fire management on private conservation lands: knowledge, perceptions and actions of landholders in eastern Australia: Lucy G. Halliday, J. Guy Castley, James A. Fitzsimons, Cuong Tran, Jan Warnken

Conservation efforts on private land contribute to minimising biodiversity loss. These efforts also include maintaining ecological processes, such as fire. Fire management is complex and private landholders must balance conservation efforts with risks to life and property. Our research shows that fire is poorly understood potentially compromising management effectiveness.
Monitoring live fuel moisture content of heathland, shrubland and sclerophyll forest in south-eastern Australia using MODIS data: G. Caccamo, L. A. Chisholm, R. A. Bradstock, M. L. Puotinen, B. G. Pippen

This study evaluates the potential of MODIS-derived spectral indices to predict live fuel moisture content of three different fire-prone vegetation types (i.e. shrubland, heathland and sclerophyll forest) in the Sydney Basin Bioregion (Australia).
Fuel loadings 5 years after a bark beetle outbreak in south-western USA ponderosa pine forests: Chad M. Hoffman, Carolyn Hull Sieg, Joel D. McMillin, Peter Z. Fulé

South-western ponderosa pine stands attacked by bark beetles had higher tree densities compared to stands not attacked. Five years post-outbreak, after adjusting for differences in pre-outbreak tree density, attacked stands had lower tree densities and lower canopy fuel loadings, but higher surface fuel loadings than stands that were not attacked.
Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire ignitions in Canada from 1980 to 2006: Nicholas J. Gralewicz, Trisalyn A. Nelson, Michael A. Wulder

Spatial and temporal analysis of wildfire in Canada was completed to create baseline expectations of ignitions at 1-km spatial units. This baseline is used to delineate unique ignition regimes and explore anthropogenic influence on ignition expectation, variation and trend.